The Power of Trends

The Power of Trends by Carl J. Chan 01/22 2026

Recently, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Jensen Huang, the chairman and CEO of Nvidia, joked that his biggest regret was selling his shares after the IPO to surprise his parents with a gift—a Mercedes-Benz. Those shares would be worth billions of dollars today. He called it “the most expensive car in the world.” At the time, Nvidia’s market capitalization was around $300 million. Today, it is approximately $4.5 trillion.The story drew laughs, but it also underscores a profound truth: even visionaries like Huang, who built one of the most transformative companies of our era, can underestimate the sheer force of a rising trend.

It’s worth noting that since Nvidia went public in 1999, its stock has seen the highest growth on Earth, but in 2002, it experienced a massive drop of 80%.

What truly carried Nvidia over the past two decades was not a single product, nor even superior management alone, but its alignment with a powerful historical trend: the exponential rise in demand for computing power.Over the last 20 years, computers quietly moved from being tools of calculation to engines of civilization. Personal computing expanded into mobile devices; gaming evolved into immersive virtual worlds; data centers multiplied alongside the internet; artificial intelligence transformed from academic theory into commercial reality. Each stage of this technological evolution required one thing above all else: faster, more efficient chips. Nvidia happened to sit precisely at this intersection. Even the dramatic 80% stock collapse in 2002 did not contradict this logic; it merely reflected short-term market fear during a long-term structural ascent. The underlying trend never disappeared.

Every time I read the life story of an exceptional person, I notice a recurring pattern: beyond intelligence, discipline, character, and even luck, there is something even more decisive—the power of trends. Talent does not exist in a vacuum. It must meet its historical moment.

Talent Without a Tide

We like to believe that brilliance naturally rises to the top. That history is a meritocracy. That the best ideas and the most capable people inevitably win. Biographies quietly tell a more complicated truth. Again and again, greatness appears when personal inclination aligns with a rising tide.

Consider Seymour Stein, the founder of Sire Records. Stein’s grandparents were Eastern European Jewish refugees who immigrated to the United States in the 1920s—a historical period when millions of Jews were subjected to forced labor and killed by the Nazis. Stein had extraordinary musical taste, intuition, and courage. But those qualities alone would not have built an empire in another era. His sensibilities coincided perfectly with the explosive growth of the post–World War II record industry, the rise of youth culture, and the democratization of music consumption.

Punk, new wave, alternative rock—these were not just artistic movements; they were economic and technological phenomena. Vinyl, radio, distribution networks, and consumer demand all converged. Stein didn’t create the wave, but he knew how to ride it.

Trends as Invisible Multipliers

From an economic perspective, trends act as invisible multipliers. They dramatically amplify effort, skill, and capital. One hour of work in a declining industry is not equal to one hour of work in an expanding one. One dollar invested against the current does not behave the same as one dollar placed in a rising tide.

We look back at Nvidia and marvel at foresight. But in the late 1990s, GPUs were niche products. AI was academic. Computing power was expensive and limited. The trend was not obvious—it was embryonic. Huang did not merely build a company; he stayed aligned with a technological trajectory that took decades to reveal its full force.

The Psychological Trap

Here is the philosophical discomfort: trends are largely impersonal. They do not reward virtue. They do not care about effort. They do not notice intention. They simply move.

Human beings, however, crave agency. We want to believe our lives are controlled by willpower and moral choice alone. Acknowledging the power of trends feels like admitting weakness—as if success were less “earned.”

But biographies suggest the opposite: wisdom lies in recognizing the limits of personal control. The truly perceptive individuals are not those who fight history, but those who listen to it.

Why Hard Work Isn’t Enough

“Work hard” is good advice—but incomplete. Hard work amplifies whatever direction you are already facing. If the underlying trend is negative, effort merely delays decline.

This is why entire generations of highly educated, diligent people can struggle economically while others, no more intelligent, flourish effortlessly. Structural forces—technology, demographics, globalization, regulation—reshape opportunity faster than individual adaptation.

In philosophy, this echoes a tragic insight: freedom exists, but always within constraints. You may choose your moves, but not the chessboard.

Learning to Read the Wind

The practical lesson is not cynicism—it is humility and attentiveness.

Understanding trends requires:

• Curiosity beyond one’s profession

• A willingness to abandon sunk costs

• The courage to look foolish early

• Patience to endure long periods of uncertainty

Those who succeed rarely predict trends perfectly. They sense direction early enough—and stay long enough—for the multiplier to work.

Timing Is Not Cheating

The power of trends does not negate talent; it gives talent a stage. Without the right historical moment, innate ability and personal preference remain dormant. With it, even modest advantages compound into extraordinary outcomes.

This is why biographies reveal that greatness is not just about who you are—but when you are. In the end, wisdom may be less about striving harder, and more about standing where the future is quietly gathering momentum.

Sometimes, the most important decision in life is not what to do—but when to do it.